Q3 2024 Mainland China Employment Outlooks: Mainland China's Q3 Hiring Expectations Show Increased Caution

2024-06-11

SHANGHAI, 11th June 2024 - ManpowerGroup Greater China has launched the Q3 2024 Employment OutlookSurvey (hereinafter referred to as "MEOS") to forecast companies’ hiringintentions during the period from July to September 2024.

 

Mainland China's Q3 2024 Hiring Expectations TendTowards Caution

In Q3 2024,strong hiring environments are forecast in Mainland China with a Net Employment Outlook(NEO) of 28 percentage points. Employers anticipate the NEO to worsen by 4points compared to the last quarter and 7 points since the third quarter of2023. Mainland China ranks eighth globally for its employment outlook, 6 points abovethe global average. Shanghai leads as the most competitiveregion with a NEO of +41%, closely followed by the Southwestern Provinces at+39%.

ManpowerGroup stated that China'seconomy has shown strong resilience against the complex backdrop of sluggishglobal economic recovery and high inflationary pressures, and we believe thatits overall positive fundamentals will not change. Similarly, employment trendswill remain the same as the economy.

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Q3 2024 EmploymentOutlook of 12 Regions and Cities

Net Employment Outlook (seasonally adjusted %)

 

Financials & Real Estate Sector:Most Positive Hiring Outlook

The most competitive sector in Mainland China is Financials & Real Estate, with a NEO of +36%, remaining steady since the last quarter and rising by 18percentage points since the third quarter of 2023, followed closely by the Transport, Logistics and Automotive (+34%).

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Q3 2024 Employment Outlook of 9 Sectors

Net EmploymentOutlook (seasonally adjusted %)


ManpowerGroup observed that MainlandChina's real estate market experienced significant policy revisions in 2024,showcasing bold financial innovations and an unparalleled commitment to marketregulation. These favorable policies have significantly enhanced hiringconfidence within the financial and real estate sectors.

 

Highly Optimistic Recruitment Outlookfor 5000+ Employees

Chinese employersin large enterprises with 5000+ employees are the most optimistic, with a NEO of 48%, rising by 3percentage points since the last quarterand 10 percentage points since Q3 2023. Mainland China ranks first globally for largeenterprises’ NEO, outpacing their global average by 23 points.

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Q3 2024 Employment Outlook forOrganizations of Six Sizes

Net EmploymentOutlook (seasonally adjusted %)


ManpowerGroupsaid: "The enthusiasm and quality of A-share listed companies in terms ofR&D and innovation have shown a significant upward trend. According to Windstatistics, by the end of 2023, the number of R&D personnel was nearly300,000, an increase of 55,000 from the end of 2022. At the same time,according to recent data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, theprofit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size hasrebounded, and for enterprises with a scale of more than 5,000, this confidencewill further promote their recruitment and employment activities.”

 

Nearly 60% of Companies in Mainland China Expect to Increase Headcount Due to AI and ML Over the Next Two Years

Two-thirds(66%) of companies in Mainland China said they have already adopted AI. At the sametime, employers face a wide variety of AI application challenges, with the mostcommon issues relating to cost, appropriate AI tools & platforms, and lackof AI skills. Among them, 38% of employers surveyed in Mainland China said that workers don’thave the skills to use AI effectively.

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Challenges Faced by Employers inthe Application of AI 


Nearly 60% ofcompanies in Mainland China expect to increase headcount due to AI and ML overthe next two years. Nearly one-fifth believe there will be no impact, and morethan one-fifth anticipate staffing decreases. The Energy & Utilities has the highestpercentage of employers increasing their headcount compared to other sectors.

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The impact of AI & ML onHeadcounts in Different Industries over the Next Two Years


Employers in All 42 Countries and Regions Expect to Increase Headcount

ManpowerGroup conducted a comprehensive survey on hiring intentions in 42countries and regions. After seasonal adjustment, the NEO for the Asia Pacificregion has maintained relative stability at +23%. Similarly, the Americas alsocontinue to demonstrate positive employment prospects, with North Americareporting a NEO of +27% and Central and South America at +22%. However, Europe,the Middle East, and Africa remain the lowest among the global regions, with aNEO of +18%.  

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Q3 2024 Employment Outlook for 41Countries and Territories

Net EmploymentOutlook (seasonally adjusted %)


To viewcomplete results for the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey, please visit https://www.manpowergrc.com/MEOS/. With MEOS beginning in 1962, thisyear’s results mark the 61st consecutive year of the survey.

 

NOTES TO READERS

The methodology used to collect the data for the Employment Outlook hasbeen digitized from the Q1 2022 report. Respondents in prior quarters werecontacted via telephone and data is now being collected online. Respondents aremembers of double opt-in online panels and are incentivized to complete thesurvey. In line with standard findings of online surveys, more people are nowtaking a position – selecting that their workforce will either increase ordecrease vs. no change. Because the Net Employment Outlook is based only on thepeople saying increase or decrease, the result of this higher level ofengagement means the methodology shift may contribute to a higher Outlook. Witha sample of 1,000 there is a margin of errorof +/-3%. The question asked and the respondent profile remains unchanged. Thesize of the organization and sector are standardized across all countries toallow international comparisons.

 

ABOUT THESURVEY

The survey data was collected in April 2024.The Employment Outlook Surveyis the most comprehensive, forward-looking employment survey of its kind, usedglobally as a key economic indicator. The Net Employment Outlook is derived bytaking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activityand subtracting from this the percentage of employers expecting a decrease inhiring activity.

 

ABOUT MANPOWERGROUPGREATER CHINA

ManpowerGroup Greater China Limited (Stock Code: 2180.HK) started itsbusiness in Hong Kong and Taiwan in 1997. Since that time, it has acceleratedits market expansion and now provides services to its clients in over 290 cities in the Greater China markets and operates in more than 20offices. ManpowerGroup Inc. (NYSE: MAN), our largest shareholder, is a worldleader in workforce solutions and services - with a long operating history of more than 75 years.

Empowered by the world-wide reputation and global perspectives ofManpowerGroup Inc., ManpowerGroup Greater China has rooted its operations inlocal markets across Greater China for over 20 years. In 2015, ManpowerGroupGreater China Limited and CITICPE established a strategic joint ventureheadquartered in Shanghai, to penetrate and accelerate business in GreaterChina. Through our service network of over 290 cities, we offer comprehensive and full range workforce solutions tomore than 20,000 companies in the Greater China Region.

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