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Q1 2023 Mainland China EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOKS: Chinese Labour Market Recovery is Set to Slow down

2023-01-05

SHANGHAI5th JANUARY 2023 - ManpowerGroup Greater China has launched itsnewest Employment Outlook Survey (hereinafter referred to as "MEOS")for Q1 2023. Data shows that Chinese employers expectations in the first quarter of 2023 sloweddown as employers report a Net Employment Outlook (NEO) of 25 percentage points.The survey was implemented between October 2022 and November 2022. For thisreport, MEOS surveyed 3,030 employers in Mainland China to forecast theemployment status of companies during the period of January to March in 2023.

Affected by the epidemic,Chinese hiring is expected to slow down in the first quarter

42% of the investigated employersanticipated an increase in hiring activity, while 40% anticipated to keep workforcelevels steady, and 17% reported a staffing decrease. The Net Employment Outlookis (+25%) after seasonally adjusted analysisdown (-18%) from Q4 and (-18%) than this time last year.​

ManpowerGroup Greater China statedthat the survey was implemented between October 2022 and November 2022. The"Twenty Measures" for optimization prevention and control has not yetbeen released. In the past, the Chinese economy was influenced by epidemicconditions, global economy and geopolitics. As a series of optimization ofepidemic prevention and control policies continue to be released and effective,and nationwide reproduction is recovering in an orderly manner, the Chinese larbourmarket is expected to raise slowly at first and fast later.

 

The most competitive regions in MainlandChina is Central Provinces

Employers in all 12 regions in MainlandChina anticipate an increase in staffing levels in the first quarter. The mostcompetitive hiring region in Mainland China is the Central Provinces with a NEOof +34%.

Compared with the previous quarter, thehiring sentiment weakens in 12 regions. The regions that are affected by theepidemic are the most obvious. Beijing (+16%) has fallen by 37 percentagepoints.

From the perspective of ManpowerGroupGreater China, the GDP of main areas of Central Provinces in the first three quarters of2022 showed steady growth compared with the same period of 2021, which to someextent enhanced the employment confidence of employers in Central Provinces.

 

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Q1 2023Employment Outlook of 12 Regions and Cities

Net Employment Outlook (seasonally adjusted %)


The most competitive sector in MainlandChina is the Transport, Logistics & Automotive sector

Chinese hiring managers in all 9sectors expect an increase in staffing levels in the first quarter of 2023. The mostcompetitive sector is the Transport, Logistics & Automotive sector, with aNEO of +35%. Job hunters in this sector can plan for the NEO to strengthen by 3percentage points compared to the last quarter and improve by 1 point comparedto this quarter last year.

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Q1 2023 Employment Outlook of 9Industry Sectors

Net EmploymentOutlook (seasonally adjusted %)


ManpowerGroup Greater China said, “Affected by the epidemic, the development oftransportation and logistics inevitably stagnated to some extent, however, theoverall industry still presented a robust performance in 2022. At the sametime, in the context of the global automotive industry moving towards electrificationand intelligence, China's automotive industry has witnessed significant growth.According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics recently,from January to November of 2022, the automobile manufacturing industryachieved a counter-trend growth, with the total profit of the automobilemanufacturing industry increasing by 0.3% year on year. Among them, theproduction and sales volume of new energy vehicles are constantly hitting newhighs. Under this trend, the good development momentum of the industry hasdriven the demand for talents in this field.

 

Employers in organizations with 250+employees are most optimistic

Hiring decision-makersin all 4 sizes of organizations in Mainland China expect an increase in Employersin organizations with 250+ employees are the most optimistic, with a NEO of +30%.Since the previous quarter, hiring markets have weakened in all 4 sizes of organizations.

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Q1 2023 Employment Outlook forOrganizations of Four Sizes

Net EmploymentOutlook (seasonally adjusted %)


ManpowerGroupGreater China believes, “The Chinese economic growth has slowed down during2022 due to the impact of multiple factors, and the larbour market is full ofcaution. These undoubtedly affect the employment confidence of organizations of different sizes. However,a series of pandemic opening measures starting in December 2022 will mean thata positive employment market is on the horizon.”

 

Worldwide, 39 of the 41 countries and territories expect to increaseheadcount

ManpowerGroup surveyed nearly 39,000 in 41 countries and territories tomeasure employer hiring intentions for the first quarter of 2023. Based onseasonally adjusted analysis, 39 of the41 countries and territories expect to increase headcount thisquarter. The strongest hiring plans for the three months are reported inPanama, Costa Rica. The weakest hiring sentiment is reported in Poland,Hungary.

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APAC: Employers in all seven Asia Pacific countries andterritories anticipate job gains in the quarter. When compared with the priorquarter, hiring prospects strengthen in two countries and territories, butdecline in five. In a comparison with this time one year ago, hiring intentionsstrengthen only in Singapore. The employment prospects of Taiwan China remainunchanged, while those of other countries or regions are weakened. Singapore (+33%), Australia (+32%), andIndia (+32%) report the most optimistic Outlooks, most cautious in Japan(+8%) and Taiwan China (+11%).

 

Americas: Workforce gains are forecast for 11 countries during thefirst quarter of 2023. The employment prospects of three and two countriesimproved quarter on quarter and year on year.

 

Employers in Canada (+34%) report a moderate increase (+3%) intheir Outlooks compared to last quarter, while the U.S. (+29%) and PuertoRico (+26%) report decreases, -4% and -6%, respectively.

 

In Central and South America, Hiring managers in Panama report the strongestintentions (+39%), followed by Costa Rica (+35%), and Guatemala (+32%); Thelowest confidence is seen in Argentina (+9%).

 

EMEA: EMEA employers expect hiring to soften, reporting an Outlook of+18%. Intentions weaken -14% when compared to the previous year and -3%since last quarter. Outlooks vary across the region with employers most keen tohire in Austria (+29%), Turkey (+29%), and Israel (+28%), and the most cautiousin Hungary (-8%), Poland (-2%), and the Czech Republic (+1%).


QuarterlyChanges as Employers Respond to Challenges

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To viewcomplete results for the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey, please visit https://go.manpowergroup.com/meos. With MEOS beginning in 1962, thisyear’s results mark the 61st consecutive year of the survey.

 

NOTES TO READERS

The methodology used to collect the data for the Employment Outlook hasbeen digitized in 41 markets from the Q1 2022 report. Respondents in priorquarters were contacted via telephone and data is now being collected online.Respondents are members of double opt-in online panels and are incentivized tocomplete the survey. In line with standard findings of online surveys, morepeople are now taking a position – selecting that their workforce will eitherincrease or decrease vs. no change. Because the Net Employment Outlook is basedonly on the people saying increase or decrease, the result of this higher levelof engagement means the methodology shift may contribute to a higher Outlook.With a sample of 1,000 there is a margin of errorof +/-3%. The question asked and the respondent profile remains unchanged. Thesize of the organization and sector are standardized across all countries toallow international comparisons.

 

ABOUT THESURVEY

The survey data was collected between October and November 2022. The Employment Outlook Survey is the most comprehensive, forward-lookingemployment survey of its kind, used globally as a key economic indicator. TheNet Employment Outlook is derived by taking the percentage of employersanticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentageof employers expecting a decrease in hiring activity.

 

ABOUT MANPOWERGROUPGREATER CHINA

 

ManpowerGroup Greater China Limited (Stock Code: 2180.HK) started itsbusiness in Hong Kong and Taiwan in 1997. Since that time, it has acceleratedits market expansion and now provides services to its clients in over 240cities in the Greater China markets and operates in more than 20 offices.ManpowerGroup Inc. (NYSE: MAN), our largest shareholder, is a world leader inworkforce solutions and services-- with a long operating history of more than70 years.

Empowered by the world-wide reputation and global perspectives ofManpowerGroup Inc., ManpowerGroup Greater China has rooted its operations inlocal markets across Greater China for over 20 years. In 2015, ManpowerGroupGreater China Limited and CITICPE established a strategic joint ventureheadquartered in Shanghai, to penetrate and accelerate business in GreaterChina. Through our service network of over 240 cities, we offer comprehensiveand full range workforce solutions to more than 20,000 companies in the GreaterChina Region. On July 10th, 2019, ManpowerGroup Greater China was listed on theHong Kong Stock Exchange.

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