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Q4 2022 Mainland China EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOKS: Chinese employment confidence rebounds strongly in Q4 2022

2022-09-13

SHANGHAI 13th SEPTEMBER 2022 - ManpowerGroup Greater China has launched its newest Employment Outlook Survey (hereinafter referred to as "MEOS") for Q4 2022. Data shows that Chinese employers forecast a very strong staffing climate during Q4 2022. For this report, MEOS surveyed 3,066 employers in Mainland China to forecast the employment status of companies during the period of October to December in 2022.

 As the economy stabilizes and recovers, Chinese employment confidence rebounds strongly in Q4 2022

 Chinese employers forecast a very strong staffing climate for the upcoming quarter. 56% of the investigated employers anticipated an increase in hiring activity, while 30% anticipated to keep workforce levels steady, and 13% reported a staffing decrease. The Net Employment Outlook is (+46%) after seasonally adjusted analysis.

 ManpowerGroup Greater China stated that, Mainland China saw a stable increase in business registration in the first half of this year, the number of registered market entities totalled 161 million at the end of June, up 4.4 percent from 2021, according to the State Administration for Market Regulation. At the same time, official data shows that the urban unemployment rate went down by 0.1 percentage to 5.4 percent in July,signifying that the overall job market is stable. Since last quarter, organizations expect the NEO to strengthen by 15 percentage points.

 

Most Competitive Regions in Mainland China is Beijing and Shanghai

 Employers in all 12 regions in Mainland China anticipate an increase in staffing levels in the next quarter. The most competitive hiring region in Mainland China is the Beijing region with a NEO of+53%. This is also related to the fact that the investigation period is back inJuly, when the epidemic situation in Beijing had less impact.

 Compared to the previous quarter hiringclimates have strengthened in 11 of 12 regions and weakened in one. The regions andcities severely affected by the epidemic are the most obvious in recovery inhiring. Compared to the last quarter, the region with the largest increase is Shanghai (+51%), where expectations rose by 23 percentage points.

According to the analysis by ManpowerGroupGreater China, the epidemic broke out in many cities in the second quarter.Under the strict isolation policy, major cities represented by Shanghai had topress the "pause button" on economic operation. Thereafter, the epidemic was effectively controlled in Shanghai and other places in June. Theseareas have begun to actively resume normal production and life. Production, consumption and foreign trade activities in Shanghai and Shenzhen all showed signs of marginal improvement, which to a certain extent enhanced the employment confidence of local companies.

 

Q4 2022 Employment Outlook of 12 Regions and Cities

    Net Employment Outlook (seasonally adjusted %) 

EN1.png

Note: Shenzhen: there are too few sample data in Shenzhen this time, which may have a great impact on the analysis. It is only for reference

 

The digital field is booming, and IT, Tech, Telecoms, Communications and Media sector are driving most demand fortalent

Chinese hiring managers in all 11sectors expect an increase in staffing levels in the fourth quarter of 2022. The most competitive sector is the IT, Tech, Telecoms, Communications and Media sector, with a NEO of +51%.

Compared with the previous quarter, Job markets have strengthened in 10 of 11 sectors, and weakened in 1 sector. The sector with the largest increase is Construction, which reports a rise of 34 percentage points.

 

Q4 2022 Employment Outlook of 11 Industry Sectors

Net Employment Outlook (seasonally adjusted %)

EN2.png 

Note:

1.     Primary Production sector includesAgriculture, Forestry and Fishing; Mining and Quarrying; Electricity; Gas and Air Conditioning Supply; Water Supply; Sewerage, Waste Management and Remediation Activities.

2.     Other Services sector includes:Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities; Administrative and Support Services; Other Service Activities.  

3.     Other Industry mainly refers to the industries other than the above-mentioned 10 major sectors. Respondentschose "other" or " Prefer not to say " in the options.

4.     Where a number is asterisked (*) it is indicating a small sample size, and these numbers or comparisons should be treated as indicative only. 

 

ManpowerGroup Greater China said, “The digital economy plays an increasingly important role in the economy. According to the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, in 2021, Mainland China's digital economy will account for 39.8% of GDP. In the future, with the breakthrough of technologies such as artificial intelligence and big data in the midstream, the downstream industry application is expected to be further expanded, and the market scale expansion will also enter the fast lane. Corresponding to the job market, the digital economy will also give birth to new flexible employment forms, optimize the employment structure, and cultivate new jobs.

 

Employers in organizations with 250+ employees are most optimistic

 Employers in all 4 sizes of organization in Mainland China expect an increase in staffing levels in the next quarter. Employers in organizations with 250+ employees are most optimistic, with a NEO of +50%. Since the last quarter, hiring markets have strengthened in all 4 sizes of organization. The organizations with less than 10 employees report the largest increase in hiring expectations since last quarter, which was 24 percentage points since Q3 2022.

 

Q4 2022 Employment Outlook for Organizations of Four Sizes

Net Employment Outlook (seasonally adjusted %)

EN3.png

 ManpowerGroup Greater China believes, “The government has issued a series of policies, including supporting private enterprises and the platform economy, suspending the payment of government fees, and setting up a risk compensation fund for small and micro enterprise loans, all of which will help micro enterprises regain their vitality and improve employment confidence.”

 

Employers around the world generally expect to increase headcount

 ManpowerGroup surveyed a total of 40,694 employers in 41 countries andterritories to measure employer hiring intentions for the fourth quarter of2022 from October to December. When considering how staffing levels will changeduring the fourth quarter, employers in 39 of 41 countries and territoriesanticipate a net positive hiring Outlook. The strongest hiring plans for thenext three months are reported in emerging markets like Brazil and India. The weakest hiring intentions are reported in Hungary and Greece.

全球-英文.png

APAC: Employers in all seven Asia Pacific countries andterritories anticipate job gains in the upcoming quarter. When compared with the prior quarter, hiring prospects strengthen in five countries and territories, but decline in one. In a comparison with this time one year ago, hiring intentions strengthen in five countries and territories. The strongest hiring activity is forecasted for India and Mainland China, while Taiwan China and Japan employers report the most cautious hiring plans.

North America: In North America, employers in Canada (+30%) and theU.S. (+33%) report moderate decreases in their Outlooks compared to last quarter, -8% and -5%, respectively, while Puerto Rico reports an overallOutlook of +32% 

Central & South Americas: Workforce gains are forecast for eight countries during the fourth quarter of 2022. Hiring intentions strengthen in five countries when compared with the third quarter of 2022, while weakening in three. When compared with last year at this time, hiring prospects strengthen in seven countries, while weakening in one. The strongest hiring plans in the region are reported in Brazil, the weakest regional labor market is expected in Argentina for the third quarter in a row.

EMEA: Intentions remain the same when compared with Q4 2021 while easing -3% since last quarter. Outlooks vary across the region with employers most keen to hire in Sweden, France, Norway, and Belgium, and the most cautious in Hungary, Greece, Poland and Spain.

 

 Findings also reveal uneven economic growth across markets as responsesdiffer from the conflict in Ukraine, looming concerns over a possible  recession, rising inflation, and higher costs of living. Hiring sentiment strengthens in 16 countries and territories when compared with the previous quarter, while weakening in 23 and no change is reported in one. Countries closest to Ukraine are holding back in hiring; for example, Hungary has dropped 17% compared to the last quarter, and now reports an Outlook of -5%.

Quarterly Changes as Employers Respond to Challenges

EN4.png


To view complete results for the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey, visit: https://go.manpowergroup.com/meos. The next survey will be released in December 2022 and will report hiring expectations for the first quarter of 2023. With MEOS beginning in 1962, this year’s results mark the 60th consecutive year of the survey.

NOTES TO EDITORS

The methodology used to collect the data for the Employment Outlook has been digitized in 41 markets from the Q1 2022 report. Respondents in prior quarters were contacted via telephone and data is now being collected online.Respondents are members of double opt-in online panels and are incentivized tocomplete the survey. In line with standard findings of online surveys, more people are now taking a position – selecting that their workforce will eitherincrease or decrease vs. no change. Because the Net Employment Outlook is basedonly on the people saying increase or decrease, the result of this higher levelof engagement means the methodology shift may contribute to a higher Outlook. With a sample of 1,000 there is a margin of errorof +/-3%. The question asked and the respondent profile remains unchanged. The size of the organization and sector are standardized across all countries to allow international comparisons.

ABOUT THE SURVEY

The survey data was collected in July 2022.The Employment Outlook Survey is the most comprehensive, forward-looking employment survey of its kind, used globally as a key economic indicator. The Net Employment Outlook is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers expecting a decrease in hiring activity.

ABOUT MANPOWERGROUP GREATER CHINA

 ManpowerGroup Greater China Limited (Stock Code: 2180.HK) started its business in Hong Kong and Taiwan in 1997. Since that time, it has accelerated its market expansion and now provides services to its clients in over 240 cities in the Greater China markets and operates in more than 20 offices.ManpowerGroup Inc. (NYSE: MAN), our largest shareholder, is a world leader in workforce solutions and services-- with a long operating history of more than70 years.

Empowered by the world-wide reputation and global perspectives of ManpowerGroup Inc., ManpowerGroup Greater China has rooted its operations inlocal markets across Greater China for over 20 years. In 2015, ManpowerGroup Greater China Limited and CITICPE established a strategic joint venture headquartered in Shanghai, to penetrate and accelerate business in GreaterChina. Through our service network of over 240 cities, we offer comprehensive and full range workforce solutions to more than 20,000 companies in the GreaterChina Region. On July 10th, 2019, ManpowerGroup Greater China was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

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