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Chinese Hiring Slows Down with the Repeated Waves of Covid-19 during Q3 2022, and Talent Shortage Hits the Highest Level in 16 Years

2022-06-14

SHANGHAI 14th JUNE 2022 - ManpowerGroup Greater China has launched its newest Employment Outlook Survey (herein after referred to as "MEOS") for Q3 2022. Data shows that Chinese hirings lows down with the repeated waves of Covid-19 epidemics during Q3 2022. For this report, MEOS surveyed 3,040 employers in Mainland China to understand the employment status of companies extending from July to September of 2022.


Chinese hiring slows down with the repeated waves of Covid-19 epidemics during Q3 2022

Chinese employers report conservative hiring intentions for the upcoming quarter. 51% of the investigated employers anticipated an increase in hiring activity, while 24% anticipated keeping steady, and 23% reported a decrease compared to the previous quarter. The Net Employment Outlook is (+29%) after seasonally adjusted analysis. ManpowerGroup Greater China stated that the epidemics were frequent occurrences in many cities of Mainland China after 2022, especially in Shanghai with the long lock down period. The dynamic clearance policy has slowed down the pace of economic development and the employment market. The Hiring outlook in Mainland China can anticipate the NEO to decrease by 4 percentage points compared to the previous quarter.


Compared with the previous quarter, the employment expectations in Shenzhen, Shanghai, Guangzhou,and other regions and cities tended to decline conservatively

Hiring outlook in 11 of 12 regions and cities in Mainland China anticipate an increase in staffing levels in Q3 2022, while 1 region is expecting a decrease. The most competitive region in Mainland China is the Central Province with a NEO of +39%. This is also related to the fact that the investigation period was in April when the epidemic situation in Central China had less impact.

Compared to the previous quarter, hiring paces have weakened in 10 of 12 regions and strengthened in 2 regions. The regions and cities greatly affected by the epidemic were the most obvious. Among them, the Net Employment Outlook of Shanghai (+29%) fell by 10 percentage points, that of Eastern Provinces(+26%) fell by 9 percentage points, and that of Guangzhou (+30%) fell by 6 percentage points.

According to the analysis by ManpowerGroup Greater China, the Central Provinces is one of the regions with the fastest economic growth and the densest labor force in the country, and the GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2022 is far ahead. The active economic climate will also drive the strong demand for talents in the region.

In Shanghai, Shenzhen, HongKong, and other places in China, COVID-19 has occurred to varying degrees. In these fast-paced cities, the lock down imposed by the clearance policy slowed down the pace of economic development and recruitment. It is believed that as the epidemic situation is gradually controlled, the economies of these regions and cities will also show strong resilience and vitality in coping with the complex and severe environment.

 

Q3 2022 Employment Outlook of 12 Regions and Cities

Net Employment Outlook (seasonally adjusted %)

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Note: Shenzhen: there are too few sample data in Shenzhen this time,which may have a great impact on the analysis. It is only for reference

 

As a basic sector for people's livelihood, the employment expectations of the Primary Production sector show strong resilience

Employment expectations in 10 of 11 sectors can expect an increase in the hiring environment from July to September 2022. The most competitive sector is Primary Production with an employment outlook of +37%.

Compared with the previous quarter, the employment sentiment of the surveyed industries has declined slightly. Job markets have weakened in 8 of 11 sectors, remained unchanged in 1, and strengthened in 1 sector. The Net Employment Outlook of Construction (+14%) fell by 14 percentage points.

 

Q3 2022 Employment Outlook of 11 Industry Sectors

Net Employment Outlook(seasonally adjusted %)

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Note:

1.      Primary Production sector includes Agriculture,Forestry and Fishing; Mining and Quarrying; Electricity; Gas and Air Conditioning Supply; Water Supply; Sewerage, Waste Management and Remediation Activities.

2.      Other Services sector includes Professional,Scientific and Technical Activities; Administrative and Support Services; Other Service Activities.  

3.      Other Industry mainly refers to the industries other than the above-mentioned 10 major sectors. Respondents chose"other" or " Prefer not to say " in the options.

4.      Where a number is asterisked (*) it is indicating a small sample size,and these numbers or comparisons should be treated as indicative only.


ManpowerGroup Greater China expressed, Agriculture, as a basis for people's livelihood, has gradually increased its investment and financing with the support of national policies. Many provinces have set up guidance funds to promote local agricultural development. VC/PE institutions with a keen sense of smell have also been widely deployed in agricultural big data, unmanned agricultural machinery, biological breeding and other tracks. This trend will also intensify the demand for talents within the field. Meanwhile, the recent impact of the pandemic has added some uncertainty to the already struggling construction sector.Compared with other sectors, Construction’s employment expectations have been weaker for two consecutive quarters.

 

The smaller employers, the more decline in employment expectations

Hiring outlook in 3 of 4 sizes of organization in Mainland China expects an increase in staffing levels in the third quarter of 2022, while 1 size of the organization is expecting a decrease. Employers in organizations with 250+ employees are most optimistic with a NEO of +35%.

Compared with the quarters, the employment expectations of 4 sizes of organization fell.The Net Employment Outlook of micro-sized enterprises fell by 11 percentage points.

 

Q3 2022 Employment Outlook of 4 Organization Sizes

Net Employment Outlook(seasonally adjusted %)

3.png

 

The talent shortage is serious, and the talent shortage in mainland China hits the highest level in 16 years

Mainland China’s talent shortage reaches its highest point. Over 80% of employers in Mainland China report difficulty finding the talent they need in 2022, strengthening +55 percentage points year-over-year and double the difficulty in 2010 (40%).

 4.png5.png


 Talent Shortages around all regions and cities. Employers in Mainland China report difficulty filling open roles, with the biggest impacts being felt in Suzhou, Xi’an, Hangzhou, Nanjing, and Shanghai.

Employers in Mainland China report difficulty filling open roles in almost all industries, with the biggest impacts being felt in Primary Production, Wholesale & Retail Trade, and Other Services.

 6.png

As digitization permeates all walks of life, IT/data skills are the most difficult for employers to find. In the VUCA era, employers' demand for employees' soft skills has risen, and Creativity & originality skills are the most difficult to find.

 7.png

Based on the survey findings, ManpowerGroup Greater China stated that there is no doubt that the epidemic has had a significant impact on employment expectations and talent shortages. At the same time, the recruitment market still shows strong resilience in many complex environments such as the epidemic. At this moment, enterprises, governments, industry organizations and human resource companies should join in to optimize the existing human resources and make efforts to fill the huge talent gap.

 

Employment outlook around the world are still expecting to grow.

ManpowerGroup surveyed a total of 40,353 employers in 40 countries and territories to measure employer hiring intentions for the third quarter, July to September 2022. Based on seasonally adjusted analysis, employers surveyed in almost all countries and territories expect to grow payrolls in the upcoming quarter. The strongest hiring plans for the next three months are reported in Mexico, Brazil, and India. Employers in Greece are the only ones to expect to see a small decrease in payrolls.Employers in Taiwan China and Japan report a low, but positive, Net Employment Outlook (NEO).

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APAC: In 4 Asia Pacific countries and territories, employers expect very strong payroll growth during the next three months. Hiring sentiment weakened in these 3 countries and territories quarter-on-quarter but gained in 4. Compared with last year, Outlooks strengthen in 5 of the 7 countries and territories. The strongest hiring prospects are reported in India, while Mainland China, Hong Kong China and Taiwan China experienced more lockdowns negatively impacting expectations.

North America: In North America, despite economic uncertainty, both the USA (+38%) and Canada (+43%) expect strong hiring levels for Q3 2022. Canada sees a stronger outlook than last quarter. The USA strengthens after two consecutive quarters of declining expectations. Hiring managers in both countries expect hiring to be significantly stronger compared to Q3 2021.

Central & South Americas: Workforce gains are forecast for all countries in South and Central America during Q3 2022. After a dip in the priorquarter, 7 countries see forecasts strengthen while Peru shows a small decrease. Since the prior year, hiring sentiment has strengthened in all 8countries. The strongest hiring plans in the region are reported in Mexico,followed by Brazil and Panama. Although forecasts strengthened this quarter,the weakest regional labor market is expected in Argentina for the second quarter in a row.

EMEA: Payrolls are forecast to increase in 22 Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) region countries during the next three months. Greek employers are still the only ones expecting a small decrease. Quarter-on-quarter, hiring plans worsen in 6 countries, improve in 15and stay steady in 2, Hungary and Germany. When compared with one year ago,hiring sentiment improves in 21 and declines in only 2 countries, notably Greece and Romania. The strongest regional hiring plans are reported inIreland, South Africa, and Finland, while employers make the weakest forecasts in Greece, Poland, Slovakia, and Romania.

To view complete results for the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey, visit: https://go.manpowergroup.com/meos. The next survey will be released in September 2022 and will report hiring expectations for the fourth quarter. With MEOS beginning in 1962, this year’s results mark the 60th consecutive year of the survey.

 

NOTES TO EDITORS

The methodology used to collect the data for the Employment Outlook has been digitized in 40 markets from the Q1 2022 report. Respondents in prior quarters were contacted via telephone and data is now being collected online. Respondents are members of double opt-in online panels and are incentivized to complete the survey. In line with standard findings of online surveys, more people are now taking a position – selecting that their workforce will either increase or decrease vs. no change. Because the Net Employment Outlook is based only on the people saying increase or decrease, the result of this higher level of engagement means the methodology shift may contribute to a higher Outlook. With a sample of 1,000 there is a margin of error of +/-3%. The question asked and the respondent profile remains unchanged. The size of the organization and sector are standardized across all countries to allow international comparisons.


ABOUT THE SURVEY

The survey data was collected in April 2022. The Employment Outlook Survey is the most comprehensive, forward-looking employment survey of its kind, used globally as a key economic indicator. The Net Employment Outlook is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers expecting a decrease in hiring activity.


ABOUT MANPOWERGROUP GREATER CHINA

ManpowerGroup Greater China Limited (StockCode: 2180.HK) started its business in Hong Kong and Taiwan in 1997. Since that time, it has accelerated its market expansion and now provides services to its clients in over 230 cities in the Greater China markets and operates in more than 20 offices. ManpowerGroup Inc. (NYSE: MAN), our largest shareholder, is a world leader in workforce solutions and services-- with a long operating history of more than 70 years.

Empowered by the world-wide reputation and global perspectives of ManpowerGroup Inc., ManpowerGroup Greater China has rooted its operations in local markets across Greater China for over 20 years.In 2015, ManpowerGroup Greater China Limited and CITICPE established a strategic joint venture headquartered in Shanghai, to penetrate and accelerate business in Greater China. Through our service network of over 230 cities, we offer comprehensive and full- range workforce solutions to more than 20,000 companies in the Greater China Region. On July 10th, 2019, ManpowerGroup Greater China was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

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