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ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey Reveals: Employers of Mainland China anticipate the second highest hiring climate in six years during Q4 2021

2021-09-14

  • Workforcegains are expected in all six of China’s industry sectors during the next threemonths, most notably the Services sector (+15%).
  • In all nineChinese regions, employers expect to add to payrolls during 4Q 2021, headed bythe South (+15%).
  • In theglobal survey, employers in 41 of the 43 countries and territories surveyedanticipate an increase in payrolls during the fourth quarter of 2021, includingall seven Asia Pacific countries and territories.


SHANGHAI (SEPTEMBER 14, 2021) – TheFourth Quarter 2021 Employment Outlook Survey released by ManpowerGroup, theleading global workforce solutions company, reveals employers in Mainland Chinaanticipate a favorable hiring climate during the October to December period,reporting a seasonally adjusted1 Net Employment Outlook2 (NEO)of +12%. Hiring plans weaken by 2 percentage points when compared with theprevious quarter, but strengthen by 7 percentage points in comparison with lastyear at this time. This result is the second highest in recent six years.


“MainlandChina's employment forecast for the fourth quarter of 2021 is stable,” ManpowerGroupGreater China said. “China's economy maintained its recovery streak, despitechallenges posed by the resurgence of COVID-19, extreme weather and externaluncertainties. Considering the steady recovery of consumption, more effectiveopening-up steps to keep foreign trade and investment stable, policycoordination and communication to shore up the confidence of market entitiesand maintain steady economic performance, employment trend in mainland China isexpected to maintain the recovery trend."


The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey for the fourthquarter 2021 was conducted by interviewing a representative sample of 4,224 employersin Mainland China, with 11% of employers expecting to increase payrolls, 1%forecasting a decrease and 72% anticipating no change. Once the data isadjusted to allow for seasonal variation, the Net Employment Outlook stands at+12%.


Strongest hiring outlook is reportedin the Services sector


Payroll gains areforecast in all six Chinese industry sectors during the upcoming quarter.Although outlooks weaken in all six sectors in comparison with the priorquarter, it was a reasonable correction; Except for Finance, Insurance &Real estate, employers report stronger hiring plans in five sectors whencompared with this time one year ago. The strongest of the six sector labormarkets is expected by Services sector (+15%) employers, decreasing by 2percentage points quarter-over-quarter, but improving by 10 percentage pointsyear-over-year.


图4.JPG

Source: ManpowerGroupEmployment Outlook Survey


“From the outline of the14th Five-Year Plan issued by the state in March this year, we can see that aseries of fields focusing on future industries and people’s livelihoods continueto receive attention. It has triggered an increase in demand for innovativetalents in related fields like chip industry, online consumption industry andmedical industry. Under the influence, it triggers the Service sector astrongest talent hiring expectation among the six major sectors.” ManpowerGroupGreater China said.


In theManufacturing sector, “China has taken multiple measures to encouragetechnological upgrading. These measures will help the Manufacturing sector toreshape corporate competition and call forth a stronger hiring expectation."


South employers report the strongest hiring prospects amongnine regions and cities3


In aregional analysis, employers anticipate an increase in staffing levels for allnine Chinese regions during the upcoming quarter. Hiring plans weaken in allnine regions quarter-over-quarter, but employers report stronger hiringsentiment in all nine regions when compared with this time one year ago. Thestrongest hiring activity is expected in the South (+15%), weakening by 2percentage points when compared with the previous quarter, but improving by 7percentage points in comparison with the same period last year.


 图5.JPG

Source: ManpowerGroupEmployment Outlook Survey


“The joint development of the Hainan Free Trade Portand the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has injected strong impetusinto the economic development of South China. While improving the businessenvironment in South China as a whole and promoting regional economicdevelopment and prosperity, it has also brought a strong demand for talents tothe market.” ManpowerGroup Greater China said.


Steady hiring intentions are reported by Large-sizeemployers4


Payrollsare forecast to grow in three of the four organization size categories duringthe coming quarter. Large employers (+28%) expect the strongest hiring pace,but Micro employers (0%) forecast flat hiring activity.


 图6.JPG

Source:ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey


Globally,strongest hiring intentions reported in the United States


In theManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey for the fourth quarter of 2021 a totalof 44,945 employers were surveyed by ManpowerGroup across 43 countries andterritories, to measure hiring intentions going forwards.


Basedon seasonally adjusted analysis*, employers in 41 of the 43 countries andterritories surveyed expect to grow payrolls during the October to Decembertime frame, while employers in two expect to trim payrolls. The strongest labormarkets in the coming quarter are anticipated in the United States (+48%),India (+44%), Netherlands (+40%), Canada (+40%), Mexico (+39%) and France (+37%).The weakest hiring intentions are reported in Panama (-2%), South Africa (-2%),Singapore (+1%), Croatia (+2%) and Argentina (+4%).


Hiringprospects are stronger in 31 of the 43 countries and territories when comparedwith the previous quarter, while weakening in 10 and remaining unchanged intwo. When compared with the same period last year hiring sentiment strengthensin all 43 countries and territories.


*Commentaryis based on seasonally adjusted data where available. Data is not seasonallyadjusted for Croatia.


In addition, results for all 43 countries and territoriescan be viewed in the new interactive ManpowerGroupEmployment Outlook Survey Explorer tool. The next ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey willbe released on 14th December 2021 and will detail expected labor market activity forthe first quarter of 2022.


Note to Editor

1. Seasonally adjusted data is a statistical process thatallows us to present the survey data without the effect of fluctuations thatnormally occur through the course of the year, as a result of seasonal eventssuch as changes in weather, public holidays, etc. Removal of the seasonaleffect gives us the ability to observe the current labor market trends moremeaningfully. All industry sector data reported above is seasonally adjusted.Regional and city data has not been adjusted to account for seasonal variation.

2. The Net Employment Outlook is derived by taking thepercentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity less thepercentage of employers who expect to reduce their workforces.

3. Since Q1 2012, the previous 16 cities surveyed inmainland China are collected into 9 regions and cities. The five cities includeBeijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Chengdu. The four regions includeNorth, South, East and Central & West. The North region includes Beijing,Tianjin, Dalian and Chengdu, while the South region includes Guangzhou,Shenzhen, Xiamen and Changsha. The East region includes Shanghai, Nanjing,Suzhou and Hangzhou; and the Central & West region includes Chengdu,Chongqing, Xi’an and Wuhan.

4. Since Q1 2015, ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Surveyshows the organization sizes data. Participating employers are categorized intoone of four organization sizes: Micro businesses have less than 10 employees;Small businesses have 10-49 employees; Medium businesses have 50-249 employees;and Large businesses have 250 or more employees.

Full survey results for each of the 43 countries andterritories included in this quarter’s survey, plus regional and globalcomparisons, can be found at http://www.manpowergroup.com/meos. In addition, all tables and graphs from the full reportare available to be downloaded for use in publication or broadcast from theManpowerGroup Web site at http://www.manpowergroup.com/press/meos_landing.cfm


About the Survey

The Employment Outlook Survey — The global leader in innovativeworkforce solutions, ManpowerGroup releases the ManpowerGroup EmploymentOutlook Survey quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase ordecrease the number of employees in their workforce during the next quarter. Itis the longest running, most extensive, forward-looking employment survey inthe world, polling more than 45,000 employers in 43 countries and territories.The survey serves as a bellwether of labor market trends and activities and isregularly used to inform the Bank of England’s Inflation Reports, as well as aregular data source for the European Commission, informing its EU EmploymentSituation and Social Outlook report the Monthly Monitor. ManpowerGroup’sindependent survey data is also sourced by financial analysts and economistsaround the world to help determine where labor markets are headed.


AboutManpowerGroup Greater China

ManpowerGroup GreaterChina Limited (Stock Code: 2180.HK) started its business in Hong Kong andTaiwan in 1997. Since that time, it has accelerated its market expansion andnow provides services to its clients in over 160 cities in the Greater Chinamarkets and operates in more than 20 offices. ManpowerGroup Inc. (NYSE: MAN),our largest shareholder, is a world leader in workforce solutions and services-- with a long operating history of more than 70 years.


Empowered by theworld-wide reputation and global perspectives of ManpowerGroup Inc.,ManpowerGroup Greater China has rooted its operations in local markets acrossGreater China for over 20 years. In 2015, ManpowerGroup Greater China Limitedand CITICPE established a strategic joint venture headquartered in Shanghai, topenetrate and accelerate business in Greater China. Through our service networkof over 160 cities, we offer comprehensive and full range workforce solutionsto more than 20,000 companies in the Greater China Region. On July 10th, 2019,ManpowerGroup Greater China listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.


ManpowerGroup GreaterChina Limited commits to unleashing the power of the human potential forprogress. We are well recognized by clients and associations through ourcontemporary offerings of flexible staffing, head-hunting, recruitment processoutsourcing, talent management and training, and other integrated servicesolutions. As a testament to our commitment, we have received such honorablerecognitions as “Asia-Pacific Human Resources Service Leading Enterprise”.


For more information about ManpowerGroup Greater China,please visit: www.manpowergrc.com

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