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ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey Reveals:
Q4 hiring pace in Mainland China will rebound slightly, steady hiring intentions are reported by Large-size employers

2020.09.08

‐ The strongest hiring intentions are reported in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector, reporting an Outlook of +9%.
‐ The South and Shenzhen employers forecast the strongest regional hiring pace, reporting an Outlook of +8%.
‐ Large employers forecast the strongest labor market with an Outlook of +17%.
‐ Globally, employers in 22 of the 43 countries and territories surveyed expect to increase payrolls during the next three months, while employers expect to trim payrolls in 16.

Shanghai, China,9 September 2020 - The Fourth Quarter 2020 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey released by ManpowerGroup, the leading global workforce solutions company, reveals job seekers can expect slow-paced fourth quarter hiring activity in China, according to employers who report a seasonally adjusted1 Net Employment Outlook2 (NEO) of +4%. Hiring intentions remain relatively stable when compared with the previous quarter and are unchanged in comparison with the same period in 2019.

“China's employment market will rebound slightly in Q4 2020 as a result of the effective control China has gained over the epidemic,” ManpowerGroup Greater China said.“In the post epidemic era, China continues to stabilize its economy and drive employment. The State Council released the guideline that China will further support flexible employment through multiple channels to stabilize employment. These measures are very beneficial to stabilizing the employment market."

The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey for the fourth quarter 2020 was conducted by interviewing a representative sample of 4,274 employers in China, with 7% expecting to increase staffing levels, 3% forecasting a decrease and 57% anticipating no change. Once the data is adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, the Net Employment Outlook stands at +4%.

Strongest hiring outlook is reported in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector

Job gains are expected in all six of China’s industry sectors during the next three months. Hiring sentiment strengthens in five sectors quarter-over-quarter, while improving in four sectors year-over-year. The strongest hiring intentions are reported in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector, where the Outlook of +9% improves by 5 and 6 percentage points from 3Q 2020 and 4Q 2019, respectively.

“In response to the novel coronavirus, China has rolled out a raft of measures to strengthen its financial support. Meanwhile, China has continued to advance investment facilitation, issued a series of policies and measures to ensure stable foreign investment. This trend will drive the development of the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector and bring more job opportunities.” ManpowerGroup Greater China said.

The South and Shenzhen employers report the strongest hiring prospects among nine regions and cities3

Payrolls are forecast to grow in all nine Chinese regions during the forthcoming quarter, with hiring prospects improving in six regions both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. The strongest regional labor markets are expected in two regions with Outlooks of +8%. In the first of these – the South – employers report improvements of 4 percentage points when compared with both 3Q 2020 and the final quarter of 2019. Shenzhen employers also report an Outlook of +8%, increasing by 5 percentage points both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.

“Up through the end of July of this year, Shenzhen has attracted more than 100 innovative, cutting-edge technological projects to its part of the Hong Kong-Shenzhen Innovation and Technology Park located at the Lok Ma Chau Loop,” ManpowerGroup Greater China said, “these projects will create jobs for Shenzhen and South."

Steady hiring intentions are reported by Large-size employers4

Payrolls are expected to increase in three of the four organization size categories during the next three months. The strongest hiring plans are reported by Large employers (+17%). However, Micro employers (-3%) expect a decline in staffing levels.

Globally, 85% of countries report stronger hiring intentions compared to previous quarter

ManpowerGroup interviewed 38,073 employers across 43 countries and territories to forecast labor market activity* in Quarter 4 2020. Interviewing was carried out during the exceptional circumstances of the COVID-19 outbreak. The survey findings for the fourth quarter of 2020 are likely to reflect the impact of the global health emergency, and the subsequent economic shutdown in many countries.

Based on seasonally adjusted analysis*, employers in 22 of the 43 countries and territories surveyed expect to increase payrolls during the next three months, while employers expect to trim payrolls in 16 (with flat hiring activity forecast in five). The strongest hiring intentions are reported in Taiwan China(+20%), the U.S. (+14%), Turkey(+10%), Japan(+9%) and Greece(+8%). The weakest hiring prospects are reported in Panama(-18%), Costa Rica(-16%), South Africa(-13%), Colombia(-11%) and the UK(-8%).

In a comparison with the prior quarter, employers in 37 of the 43 countries and territories report stronger hiring plans, while Outlooks weaken in five countries and are unchanged in one. When compared with the same period in 2019, hiring sentiment weakens in 41 countries and territories, improves in one and is unchanged in one.

*Commentary is based on seasonally adjusted data where available. Data is not seasonally adjusted for Croatia or Portugal.

In addition, results for all 43 countries and territories can be viewed in the new interactive ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey Explorer tool. The next ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey will be released on 8th December 2020 and will detail expected labor market activity for the first quarter of 2021.

Note To Editor
1. Seasonally adjusted data is a statistical process that allows us to present the survey data without the effect of fluctuations that normally occur through the course of the year, as a result of seasonal events such as changes in weather, public holidays, etc. Removal of the seasonal effect gives us the ability to observe the current labor market trends more meaningfully. All industry sector data reported above is seasonally adjusted. Regional and city data has not been adjusted to account for seasonal variation.
2. The Net Employment Outlook is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity less the percentage of employers who expect to reduce their workforces.
3. Since Q1 2012, the previous 16 cities surveyed in mainland China are collected into 9 regions and cities. The five cities include Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Chengdu. The four regions include North, South, East and Central & West. The North region includes Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian and Chengdu, while the South region includes Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Xiamen and Changsha. The East region includes Shanghai, Nanjing, Suzhou and Hangzhou; and the Central & West region includes Chengdu, Chongqing, Xi’an and Wuhan.
4. Since Q1 2015, ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey shows the organization sizes data. Participating employers are categorized into one of four organization sizes: Micro businesses have less than 10 employees; Small businesses have 10-49 employees; Medium businesses have 50-249 employees; and Large businesses have 250 or more employees.

Full survey results for each of the 43 countries and territories included in this quarter’s survey, plus regional and global comparisons, can be found at http://www.manpowergroup.com/meos. In addition, all tables and graphs from the full report are available to be downloaded for use in publication or broadcast from the ManpowerGroup Web site at http://www.manpowergroup.com/press/meos_landing.cfm

About the Survey
The global leader in innovative workforce solutions, ManpowerGroup releases the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforce during the next quarter. It is the longest running, most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the world, polling over 38,000 employers in 43 countries and territories. The survey serves as a bellwether of labor market trends and activities and is regularly used to inform the Bank of England’s Inflation Reports, as well as a regular data source for the European Commission, informing its EU Employment Situation and Social Outlook report the Monthly Monitor. ManpowerGroup’s independent survey data is also sourced by financial analysts and economists around the world to help determine where labor markets are headed.

About ManpowerGroup Greater China
ManpowerGroup Greater China Limited (Stock Code: 2180.HK) started its business in Hong Kong and Taiwan in 1997. Since that time, it has accelerated its market expansion and now provides services to its clients in over 160 cities in the Greater China markets and operates in more than 20 offices. ManpowerGroup Inc. (NYSE: MAN), our largest shareholder, is a world leader in workforce solutions and services -- with a long operating history of more than 70 years.

Empowered by the world-wide reputation and global perspectives of ManpowerGroup Inc., ManpowerGroup Greater China has rooted its operations in local markets across Greater China for over 20 years. In 2015, ManpowerGroup Greater China Limited and CITICPE established a strategic joint venture headquartered in Shanghai, to penetrate and accelerate business in Greater China. Through our service network of over 160 cities, we offer comprehensive and full range workforce solutions to more than 20,000 companies in the Greater China Region. On July 10th, 2019, ManpowerGroup Greater China listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

ManpowerGroup Greater China Limited commits to unleashing the power of the human potential for progress. We are well recognized by clients and associations through our contemporary offerings of flexible staffing, head-hunting, recruitment process outsourcing, talent management and training, and other integrated service solutions. As a testament to our commitment, we have received such honorable recognitions as “Asia-Pacific Human Resources Service Leading Enterprise”.

For more information about ManpowerGroup Greater China, please visit: www.manpowergrc.com

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